June Winners

Congrats to the winners of this month’s competition.

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Hi everyone,

Here are the winners and prizes for June’s competition:

PLACE WINNER PRIZE
1st Obi 30 packs
2nd Slayer122678 20 packs
3rd-tie MagicSeagull 5 packs
3rd-tie LusentSoul 5 packs
Random Surly Pro lesson

witchwood packsThe free pro lesson is provided by Litiq, one of Gamer Sensei’s highest rated coaches.

Obi’s first place lead has narrowed to eight points while Slayer’s second place position is only four points above the two players in third.

Predictions will be scored for July in a few days and prizes awarded at the end of the month.

We’re happy to say that Farsig.ht’s competition will run again for Hearthstone’s next expansion, The Boomsday Project. Sign-ups are now open and rating of Boomsday cards will be possible in the next few weeks as more cards are revealed.

-Mark (“Siberian”) and Sasha (“CivilCrayon”)

May prediction winners

Congrats to the winners of this month’s competition.

Hi everyone,

Here are the winners and prizes for May’s competition:

PLACE WINNER PRIZE
1st Obi 30 packs
2nd Slayer122678 20 packs
3rd Thenaan 10 packs
Random Bmath Pro lesson

witchwood packsThe free pro lesson is provided by Litiq, one of Gamer Sensei’s highest rated coaches.

Obi continues to be comfortably in first place, twenty-two points ahead of second place. However, only two points separate second, third, and fourth place.

Predictions will be scored for June in a few days and prizes awarded at the end of the month. The deadline to enter has passed but you can sign up to prepare for the next expansion’s competition.

-Mark (“Siberian”) and Sasha (“CivilCrayon”)

April prediction winners and card stats

Congrats to the winners of April’s competition. Here are stats on the usage, winrates, and prediction accuracy of Witchwood cards in April.

Hi everyone,

Here are the winners and prizes for April’s competition:

PLACE WINNER PRIZE
1st Obi 30 packs
2nd Slayer122678 20 packs
3rd-tie MagicSeagull 5 packs
3rd-tie Thenaan 5 packs
Random ZekenDestroy Pro lesson

witchwood packsThe free pro lesson is provided by Litiq, one of Gamer Sensei’s highest rated coaches.

Card ratings are from 1 to 5 stars and calculated from each card’s frequency in standard ranked decks according to HSReplay data.

A 5-star card is in the top 20% of usage. A 1-star card is in the bottom 20%. More on our methodology and scoring is here.

Obi’s prediction is impressively accurate so far. He correctly predicted the current rating of 103/135 cards and was only off by one star on all other cards. If he ends up correctly predicting all 135 cards at season’s end, he will win the perfect score prize of $1,000.

I asked how he thinks the meta will change in the coming months and he said (pre-nerfs): “I think we will see more tempo mage and control warlock will work better without doomguards.” (I queued into four straight tempo mages this morning…)

Most used Witchwood Cards

CARD In % of Decks
Baku the Mooneater 19.7%
Voodoo Doll 10.7%
Rotten Applebaum 9.5%
Lord Godfrey 8.5%
HenchClan Thug 8.2%

Least used Witchwood Cards

CARD In % of Decks
Deadly Arsenal 0.04%
Duskfallen Aviana 0.04%
Worgen Abomination 0.04%
Darkmire Moonkin 0.04%
Splitting Festeroot 0.04%

Highest deck winrate

A card’s “deck winrate” is the average winrate of decks that it’s in.

A card’s “play winrate” is the average winrate of decks when it’s played onto the board.

CARD Deck Winrate Community rating
Silver Sword 58.7% 2.4 (out of 5)
Genn Greymane 58.0% 3.4
The Glass Knight 57.8% 3.2
Prince Liam 57.4% 2.7
Druid of the Scythe 57.2% 2.5

The community whiffed on the five winningest cards, rating none higher than 3.4 stars. Three are Paladin cards.

Lowest deck winrate

CARD Deck Winrate Community rating
Mistwraith 37.8% 1.8
Splitting Festeroot 39.0% 1.5
Spectral Cutlass 39.6% 1.5
Snap Freeze 40.2% 1.5
Holy Water 40.2% 2.2

The community accurately predicted most of these.

Strange fact about Prince Liam: decks he is in have a strong winrate (57.4%, 4th place) but his play winrate is awful (37.0%, 128th place), despite him being played for his battlecry.

Baku the Mooneater also has a good deck winrate (53.5%, 16th place) but her play winrate is almost dead last (33.7%, 134th place).

Community’s highest rated cards

CARD Community Rating Actual Rating
Lord Godfrey 4.8 5
Shudderwock 4.7 5
Baku the Mooneater 4.3 5
Book of Specters 4.1 4
Countess Ashmore 4.0 4
Wing Blast 4.0 4

Community’s lowest rated cards

CARD Community Rating Actual Rating
Unpowered Steambot 1.3 4
Pumpkin Peasant 1.3 3
Felsoul Inquisitor 1.2 3
Fiendish Circle 1.2 1
Darkmire Moonkin 1.1 1

Even though the community missed on the winningest cards to date, its highest and lowest ratings were more accurate.

Community’s least accurate cards

CARD Community Rating Actual Rating
Vicious Scalehide 2.0 5
Blackwald Pixie 2.3 5
Unpowered Steambot 1.3 4
Wyrmguard 2.4 5
Scaleworm 2.5 5

Community’s most accurate cards

CARD Community Rating Actual Rating
Duskfallen Aviana 1.3 1
Darkmire Moonkin 1.1 1
Lord Godfrey 4.8 5
Shudderwock 4.7 5
Forest Guide 1.3 2

All actual ratings are only for the month of April so we expect them to change, especially after the nerfs hit.

Farsig.ht predictions will be scored again in May and prizes awarded at the end of the month. The deadline to enter has passed but you can sign up to prepare for the next expansion’s competition.

-Mark (“Siberian”) and Sasha (“CivilCrayon”)